The Benefit of Patience

The late Bart Cummings, trainer of 246 Group 1 winners, including 12 Melbourne Cups, famously said:

“Patience is the cheapest thing in racing — and the least commonly used.”

That wisdom is not outdated. A horse’s conformation, physiology and biomechanics have not fundamentally changed. 

Given the huge increase in prize money in top races (FOR OLDER HORSES), patience is a lot more rewarding now than it has ever been.  

And the evidence is in front of us.

Modern Champions: Unraced at Two

Looking at Australia’s elite horses of the past two seasons and beyond, there is clear dominance from horses that were unraced at two.

Australia's recent "champions"  all unraced at 2yo

• Pride Of Jenni - 12 wins - 4 Gr1 wins - $11.4M earnings  

• Autumn Glow - 11 wins -  3 Gr1 wins - $8.1M earnings  

• Sir Delius - 6 wins - 2 Gr1 wins - $1.5M earnings  

• Via Sistina - 16 wins - 11 Gr1 wins - $19M earnings  

• Mr Brightside - 20 wins - 10 Gr1 wins - $18.8M earnings  

• Half Yours - 8 wins - 2 Gr1 wins - $9.2M earnings  

• Without A Fight - 11 wins - 2 Gr1 wins - $9.7M earnings  

• Jimmysstar - 11 wins - 3 Gr1 wins - $6.6M earnings  

• Private Harry - 5 wins - 1 Gr1 win - $2M earnings  

• Gringotts - 12 wins - 1 Gr1 win - $6M earnings  

• Aeliana - 4 wins - 1 Gr1 win - $2.7M earnings  

• Kovalica - 7 wins - 1 Gr1 win - $4.3M earnings  

• Ceolwulf - 7 wins - 4 Gr1 wins - $10.9M earnings  

• War Machine - 7 wins - 1 Gr1 win - $3.3M earnings  

• Baraqiel - 8 wins - 1 Gr1 win - $1.4M earnings  

• Antino - 13 wins -  2 Gr1 wins - $3.3M earnings  

• Nature Strip - 22 wins -  9 Gr1 wins - $20M earnings 

• Incentivise - 9 wins - 3 Gr1 wins - $5.7M earnings  

• Kolding - 11 wins - 2 Gr1 wins - $6.6M earnings  

• Atishu - 11 wins - 3 Gr1 wins - $5.9M earnings  

• Egg Tart - 7 wins - 2 Gr1 wins - $1.3M earnings  

• Espiona - 7 wins - 1 Gr1 win - $3.3M earnings  

• Royal Descent - 5 wins- 1 Gr1 win - $2.7M earnings  

 

The same theory can be applied to horses all around the world.

Hong Kong's recent "champions"  all unraced at 2yo

• Romantic Warrior - 21 wins - 12 Gr1 wins -$42M earnings

• Ka Ying Rising - 18 wins - 7 Gr1 wins - $26M earnings 

• Beauty Generation - 20 wins - 8 Gr1 wins - $19M earnings 

• Golden Sixty - 26 wins - 10 Gr1 wins - HK$167M earnings

• Voyage Bubble - 12 wins - 6 Gr1 wins HK$130M earnings

• California Spangle - 13 wins - 3 Gr1 wins - HK$84M earnings

• Lucky Sweynesse - 16 wins - 4 Gr1 wins - HK$80M earnings

• Exultant - 13 wins - 5 Gr1 wins - HK$88M earnings
  
  

New Zealand's recent "champions"  all unraced at 2yo

• Well Written - 5 starts 5 wins - 1 Gr1 win - $1.4M earnings 

• Grail Seeker - 4 wins - 2 Gr1 wins - $788K earnings 

• Willydoit - 4 wins - 1 Gr1 win - $970k earnings 

• Here To Shock - 14 wins - 1 Gr1 win - $3M earnings

• Provence - 7 wins - 3 Gr1 wins - $1M earnings

• Snazzytavi - 9 wins - 2 Gr1 wins - $970K earnings
  
  

USA's recent "champions"  all unraced at 2yo

• Justify - 5 wins - 3 Gr1 wins - US$3.1M earnings, sold for US$75M 

• Flightline - 6 wins - 4 Gr1 wins - US$4.5M earnings

• Arrogate - 7 wins - 4 Gr1 wins - US$17.4M earnings

• Curlin - 11 wins - 5 Gr1 wins - US$10.5M earnings

• Zenyatta - 19 wins - 13 Gr1 wins - US$7.3M earnings

• Invasor - 12 wins - 7 Gr1 wins - US$7.9M earnings

• Mineshaft - 9 wins - 4 Gr1 wins - US$2.2M earnings

• Wise Dan - 11 wins - 8 Gr1 wins - US$7.6M earnings 

Europe's recent "champions"  all unraced at 2yo

• Daryz — regarded as the best three-year-old in Europe and rated the 2nd best horse in the world.  He did not debut until midway through his three-year-old season and won the Arc in his first preparation.

• Ace Impact — 6 starts, 6 wins - 2 Gr1 wins - €3.9M earnings (Champion 3YO in Europe)

 

The pattern is difficult to ignore.

 

Timing Matters

I am not opposed to two-year-old racing itself. What matters most is timing and volume.

There is a profound difference between a horse debuting in October (of his 2YO year) versus May (of his 2YO year) of its two-year-old year. That eight-month gap represents a huge leap in physical and mental maturity — nearly 30% of a horse’s entire lifespan at that stage.

Skeletal strength, muscle mass, coordination and mental resilience improve dramatically over time. A horse in June of its two-year-old year is a fundamentally different athlete from the same horse in October of its 2-year-old year. 

Champions Who Raced Lightly and Late at Two

Even among elite horses who did race at two, many debuted late in the season, often weeks after the Golden Slipper.

Many of Chris Waller’s champions follow this pattern.

• Winx  (first start in June) 

• The Autumn Sun (first start late April) 

• Zoustar (first start mid April)

• Lady Shenandoah (first start in May)

• Joliestar (first start in June)

• Fangirl (one start in June at two)

• Verry Elleegant (one start in June at two)

• Private Life (first start in May)

• Shoot Out (first start in May)

• Lindermann (first start in late April)

• Espiona (first start in April)

• Durston (first start in October NH)

• Unforgotten (first start in July)

• Riff Rocket (first start in late April)

• Albert The Fat (first start in July)

• Land Legend (first start in November NH)

• Buckaroo ( first start in July NH)

Other examples include: 

• Black Caviar (first start in mid-April)

• So You Think (first start in May)

• Dundeel ( first start in April) 

• Treasurethe Moment (first start in June)

The Physical Reality

Appropriate training and controlled workload, as well as concussion, are essential for bone density and structural development. But it takes an exceptional individual to perform at Group level as an early two-year-old and sustain that performance through to five. 

The candle rarely burns brightly from both ends.

Most good horses show their talent in their first couple of preparations. The real skill and nuance lies in knowing how to harness that talent, rather than rushing to exploit it.

The Commercial Pressure

During yearling sales season, many horses are syndicated on the promise of early two-year-old trials and races.

But history tells us something different.

In a sport where late bloomers so often outperform early 2yo, patience remains one of the greatest — and most undervalued — advantages available to horsemen and owners of quality horses.

What is best for the horse is best for the owners

Having worked around the world with leading trainers for nearly eight years, I have seen first-hand the attrition that impatient training can cause.

I was raised around horses, and this industry has been very good to me. Philosophically, I owe a great deal to the Thoroughbred.

With that respect comes responsibility. Our duty is to do what is best for the horse.

Longevity, soundness and mental well-being must always come before short-term ambition. At the end of the day, what is best for the horse is always best for the owners. 

Patience costs very little.

Its rewards can be extraordinary.